Draft Prep 101

I was getting ready for my own fantasy draft tonight, thinking about all the tools and information I wanted or needed. Now, I know there are many theories and methods for getting ready, but figured sharing my own thoughts on the subject might be interesting to someone... anyone. So, here are a few things that I am getting ready for my draft.

League Scoring Rules
If you don't know your rules well ahead of your draft and as you are researching your target players, sleepers, etc, then you are behind the eight ball. Know your league scoring rules and how that might impact positions and players in relation to each other. Passing TD scoring for instance will change how you rank a QB in comparison to a RB. Points per receipt also have an impact. A RB who can catch out of the backfield has increased value. I always have a copy or the league scoring rules, or at least know them.

Mock Drafts
There are many places to participate in mock drafts. Cbs Sportsline, ESPN, Yahoo Sports, etc. Find a draft that looks similar to yours and give it a try. It gives you a feel for how your draft might go. And if you know your draft position already, that helps, try to get your spot.

Cheat SheetYou can get a cheat sheet from all over the net, magazines or create one for yourself. Just a hard copy is all I need. I will highlight my studs, guys I wouldn't mind getting (tier 2 for me) and sleepers or players of interest. That way, I can adjust my strategy at draft time, knowing the players I like.

ADP [Average Draft Position]I also will print out a fairly long list of ADP for each position and composit. I use this in conjunction with my cheat sheet. For instance, if I am targeting Ryan Grant, the cheat sheet is a sort of ranking and tehe ADP sheet will give me an idea of roughly what round he is going in, or what pick.

Rule to live by
Be flexible. Even if you want Calvin Johnson, inevitably someone will snap him up one pick before you were going to. So, settle for Randy Moss or Greg Jennings.

Cardinal Rule
Have fun. If you are in it for the money, then you are going to have to way more serious than I am.

Today's Hottie: Martika Ibarra

The Indianapolis Scoring Machine

The Indianapolis Colts have been a fantasy scoring machine for many years. Whether talking about Peyton Manning, Marvin Harrison, Reggie Wayne, Dallas Clark, Brandon Stokely, etc, the aerial show that is the Colts offense has produce some of fantasy football's best scoring wide outs, not to mention, the best QB in fantasy history.

But something has changed. Marvin Harrison. It used to be Marvin and whoever else would catch the rest of Peyton's lasar passes as second fiddle. But Harrison has moved on and Reggie Wayne has taken up the mantle of top fantasy receiver in Indy. So, the question remains, where will the rest of the balls go?

From standpoint, while a legitmate option might emerge from the depth chart, all are no-name players who are a crap shoot at best. For my money, I would count on Wayne to remain the fantasy stud, with both Anthony Gonzales and Dallas Clark to see a nice improvement on their numbers, particularly Gonzales. Wayne is in line for 1300+, 10+ and 100+ (yards, TDs and receptions). I would put my money on the Anthony putting up 1000+, 6+ and 75+ for himself.
This would be a nice third WR options, or perhaps even a #2.

Now, for Clark, he is already one of the prime tightends in the game, competely with Jason Witten, Tony Gonzales and Antonio Gates. With an expected boost from the absense of Harrison, Clark could be the best of the bunch.

This evening, we will featuring the lovely Skyler Haze

Primary Backs

After a brief vacation induced hiatus, I am back.

Like all preseasons and prior to fantasy draft days, I do a ton of reading. I have become a fan of Fantasy Clicks, written by Jay Clemons on SI.com. I don't always agree with his insights, but it IS interesting reading nonetheless. And hell, if you can't read someone else's opinion and take from it what you will, then good luck. Anyhow, recently, the following running backs were listed at the 11 running backs who "WILL carry the load" for their respective teams:

Michael Turner, Falcons

Matt Forte, Bears

Maurice Jones-Drew, Jaguars

Steven Jackson, Rams

Steve Slaton, Texans

Brandon Jacobs, Giants

Ronnie Brown, Dolphins

Clinton Portis, Redskins

Kevin Smith, Lions

Cedric Benson, Bengals

Julius Jones, Seahawks

I agree with most of the list, but not all. For instance, while Brandon Jacobs is a nice fantasy commodity, his running mate, Ahmad Bradshaw will have an almost equal year (plus Jacobs has been injury prone). Still, there are a few nuggets to be gained from looking at the analysis.

Take a look at Cedric Benson at spot #10. The reason I point him out is, IF he is the primary back in Cincinnati, he could have excellent value where he is going in drafts. I just checked the average draft position on him and found him at pick 83, or somewhere in round 7 or 8 depending on the number of teams in your league. You can't beat a starting running back taken that late in the game.

Ronnie Brown. Now there is an interesting accessment. Brown is coming off of major knee surgery. He also has a backfield mate in Ricky Williams. I would use caution in taking him too early in drafts. His ADP is around 31, which means late 3 round. In my estimation, that is a bit early for Brown.

I am not sure how Kevin Smith became fantasy relevent. Detroit might be moving in the right direction, but if they win more than 5 games this year, I would be surprised. And from a fantasy perspective, the only player I am watching with any great interest is Calvin Johnson (with good reason). But I am not puying Smith as anything more than mediocre. I will eat crow if he is more than a 30th ranked fantasy back. He is at 38 in RDP right now.

Now for the eye candy. See the sweetness that is Jessica Barton.

Travel Day

Apologies all, but I had a travel day yesterday. I will be back to posting again today. But, since I was gone, I will submit Kristi Lynn in way of apology. Enjoy!

Offensive Lines

No fantasy league I have seen incorporates scoring for offensive linemen, even if they recover a fumble for a TD. But there is a much to learn about the performance of offensive players based on the quality of their offensive linemen.

If you are lucky enough to find good, solid articles on offensive lines, read them. They can weigh heavily in how particularly a runningback or quarterback perform, and indirectly, on wide receivers. If Tom Brady had crap for a line in front of him, do you think he would be a top tier fantasy option? Absolutely not. And if Brady does not have time to throw the ball, how do you think Randy Moss and Wes Welker would do?

For myself, I look for offensive lines that have remained in tact, or have had very little change. The Giants offensive line is regarded as one of the best, so Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw are both regarded as good options. And while Eli Manning is not a top tier QB, that is only because their ground game is dominant.

Below is a list I found on CBSSportsline.com. And while I am not in total agreement to the rankings, this is a good guide:
Carolina Panthers
New York Giants
Dallas Cowboys
New York Jets
Philadelphia Eagles
New England Patriots
Atlanta Falcons
Denver Broncos
San Diego Chargers
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Indianapolis Colts
Tennessee Titans
Minnesota Vikings
Baltimore Ravens
New Orleans Saints
Houston Texans
Jacksonville Jaguars
Miami Dolphins
Cleveland Browns
San Francisco 49ers
Seattle Seahawks
Arizona Cardinals
St. Louis Rams
Kansas City Chiefs
Green Bay Packers
Oakland Raiders
Pittsburgh Steelers
Detroit Lions
Chicago Bears
Washington Redskins
Cincinnati Bengals
Buffalo Bills

In the final analysis, it is far more important to know the performance players, but having some insight into the offensive lines can help a good fantasy owner to make up their mind on some players and decisions.

For today's babe, it is the smoking hot Michelle Baker

Pay attention... or not.

Everyone knows the elite quarterbacks and those on the cusp. Peyton Manning, Tom Brady and Drew Brees are the cream of the crop, with Aaron Rogers and Phillip Rivers coming up right behind. But once you get by Tony Romo and Kurt Warner, there is a 10 spot drop off in ADP for quarters, which is significant. Here are three you should pay attention to and three perhaps not.

Pay Attention
Carson PalmerHe will have a steady wide receiving crews with Johnson, Coles and Henry. As long as his offensive line can give him time, Palmer could have a nice season.

Matt Hasselbeck
He is on the mend and has looked good in camp so far this season. His wide receivers are not well known, but if Hasselbeck can spread the ball around, with good health, should return to tier 2 status.

Donovan McNabb
With a promising group of young receivers (and I think Maclin could be the cream of the rookie WR crop), a solid receiving back out of the backfield in Westbrook, and Andy Reid's pass oriented offense, McNabb is still a tier two QB.

Nevermind
Jay Culter
I love Culter's arm and skills, but he really does not have a great crew to toss the pigskin to. Devin Hester might be a nice nugget receiver in the middle rounds, but I don't see him surpassing 3200 yards and 22 TDs. Average for a fantasy QB. One cavot, if he uses Forte and Olsen well, he could be better.

Matt Cassel
Just too early to annoit Cassel into the fantasy QB elite. Their offensive line is a work in progress, and this is a guy who was sacked more than any other in football last year with the New England line blocking for him. His inexperience made him into the second coming of Drew Bledsoe in Foxboro.

Joe Flacco
His leadership and physical skills are good, but the Baltimore run first offensive and average wide receiving crew make Flacco a middle of the road fantasy QB. Heck, he doesn't even have a reliable receiving option out of the backfield.

And here is another thing to pay attention to: Lauren Reese

Back again... who cares?

Brett Favre unretired again. Now, being a life-long Packers fan AND a sworn Favre fan, I have many opinions about the whole mess over the past couple years, including today's Viking's announcement. But there is definately a fanatsy spin here.

First, Favre is far from done. He might be older and slower, but as he showed during the first half of 2008, he can still be fantasy football viable. Without a bumb shoulder and tendon is his throwing arm, he could have been near the 30 TD mark and most likely, would have been less than the 22 INTs he ended up with. For me, it is not about if he has the talent. The talent remains.

Second, Minnesota has a strong defense and an excellent running game, one of the best in the league. Adrian Peterson is either the first or second pick in almost every mock draft or rating system you see. There is no reason that Minnesota will change the formula.

Third, Favre has been most effective in his career when he was not the only answer. Take 2007 for instance. Ryan Grant put up excellent numbers and the weight of the team did not fall on #4's shoulders. Given that, Favre could be a decent #2 fantasy option. He won't put up the extravagent numbers, but if a defense stacks the line with 8 in the box, or even 9, he still has the skills to burn single coverage with Bernard Berrian on the outside.

In the end, I won't bet the farm on Favre and putting up 30+ TD with 3500+ yards, but 25ish TDs and 3000+ yards is possible. By any measure, that is not a bad fantasy season.


And now, featuring Janis Godlewski