Primary Backs

After a brief vacation induced hiatus, I am back.

Like all preseasons and prior to fantasy draft days, I do a ton of reading. I have become a fan of Fantasy Clicks, written by Jay Clemons on SI.com. I don't always agree with his insights, but it IS interesting reading nonetheless. And hell, if you can't read someone else's opinion and take from it what you will, then good luck. Anyhow, recently, the following running backs were listed at the 11 running backs who "WILL carry the load" for their respective teams:

Michael Turner, Falcons

Matt Forte, Bears

Maurice Jones-Drew, Jaguars

Steven Jackson, Rams

Steve Slaton, Texans

Brandon Jacobs, Giants

Ronnie Brown, Dolphins

Clinton Portis, Redskins

Kevin Smith, Lions

Cedric Benson, Bengals

Julius Jones, Seahawks

I agree with most of the list, but not all. For instance, while Brandon Jacobs is a nice fantasy commodity, his running mate, Ahmad Bradshaw will have an almost equal year (plus Jacobs has been injury prone). Still, there are a few nuggets to be gained from looking at the analysis.

Take a look at Cedric Benson at spot #10. The reason I point him out is, IF he is the primary back in Cincinnati, he could have excellent value where he is going in drafts. I just checked the average draft position on him and found him at pick 83, or somewhere in round 7 or 8 depending on the number of teams in your league. You can't beat a starting running back taken that late in the game.

Ronnie Brown. Now there is an interesting accessment. Brown is coming off of major knee surgery. He also has a backfield mate in Ricky Williams. I would use caution in taking him too early in drafts. His ADP is around 31, which means late 3 round. In my estimation, that is a bit early for Brown.

I am not sure how Kevin Smith became fantasy relevent. Detroit might be moving in the right direction, but if they win more than 5 games this year, I would be surprised. And from a fantasy perspective, the only player I am watching with any great interest is Calvin Johnson (with good reason). But I am not puying Smith as anything more than mediocre. I will eat crow if he is more than a 30th ranked fantasy back. He is at 38 in RDP right now.

Now for the eye candy. See the sweetness that is Jessica Barton.

LaDainian Tominson: washed up?

There is a magic number in football for running backs: 370. Any runningbacks that have hit that number of carries in a given year have broken down after that. Jamal Lewis, Larry Johnson, LaDainian Tomlinson... the only exception is Eric Dickerson. And while they all had an exceptional year when carrying the ball so many times, only Jamal Lewis as rushed for over 1000 yards in his career after his 370+ carry season, and that was a few years after. Can Tomlinson do it?

He is at the magical 30 year old mark. And while, in a keeper league, his value should slide, simply from age, I would not bet against him this year. He will undoutedly split some carries with Darren Sproles, but Tomlinson's value is not just in his carries. He is a great receiver out of the backfield as well. In any redraft league, I would take Tomlinson in the middle to later first round and smile all the way to the bank. There is risk, yes, but his track record and abilities speak for themselves. And the San Diego offense has many weapons, so the entire attack does not rely on him, like it has in some years past. Take a chance and reap the rewards.

Now, for today's treat, I present sexy Mihaela

Top RBs

Most mock drafts have Adrian Peterson as the first pick in the draft. Once you are past that first pick, there is open debate as to who to pick. Here is how I rank the next few RB positions:

2. Matt Forte
Some people are saying the arrival of Jay Cutler will impact Forte's productivity, but I think it will only enhance his production. With a legitimate threat at QB, defenses cannot stack the line and dare the Bears to beat them through the air. And Forte is a quality receiver. I would predict similar numbers as last year for Forte with a bit of an increase.

3. Michael Turner
Turner had a great year last year, yet the general notion is he will have a drop off this year. While to expect the exceptional year he had last year again, stats approaching 2008 are not out of the question. Turner is a solid pick at #3.

4. Maurice Jones-Drew
The only reason I have Jones-Drew ranked behind Forte and Turner is previous results. Forte and Turner turned in great years last year; Jones-Drew has yet to prove it. The pundits are predicting a major increase in Jones-Drews numbers, and he has never shouldered the load before. And while other smaller back have had great success (see Tiki Barber and Charlie Garner), he has to prove something before being placed ahead of Forte. Yet, the potential is there for Jones-Drew to have a break out year.

5. Frank Gore
Gore has a solid campaign in 2007, with a drop off last year. But with Mike Singletary taking over a coach and Gore hopefully getting past his nagging injuries, he should return to his previously solid numbers. 1300+ yards and 10+ TDs is not out of the question. He is only this far down the list because he is not a consistant threat outside the backfield.

Ok, ok, the question everyone is asking... where is DeAngelo Williams. I dont buy last year. He was a stud, granted, but Williams has been injury prone (check this year's status at Panther camp) and he will continue to share the load with James Stewart.

Now, on to today's babe. Check out Kimberley Rogers