August 17, 2009

Don't be a boy scout, but be prepared.

The secret of any fantasy football draft is to be prepared. Here are a few things to consider when getting ready for your draft.
  • Know your league rules. What is the scoring? Points per receipt or 6 point passing vs 4 point passing TDs make a huge difference in your draft strategy. Keeper league or redraft - this would go a long way towards where a veteran RB might go, like, say, LaDainian Tomlinson.
  • Research. Know the players you like and know why you like them. For instance, for running backs, will the back you have your eye on be the main option, or will they be in a RBBC (running back by committee). Will the sleeper WR pick you are targetting in the 10th round actually be a starter?
  • Keep an eye on the preseason, not for stats, but for who will be starting. It is critical, just before your draft, to know how the roster battles are panning out. Who will be a starter, who will be a back up?
  • Watch out for homer picks. I am a lifelong Packers fan, but in reality, the difference between Aaron Rogers and Phillip Rivers is minimal, although Rogers is typically going a half dozen picks sooner than Rivers.
  • Don't reach. This ties right into the homer picks. A valuable statistic that almost every viable fantasy site has is ADP or Average Draft Position. This is typically a composite of all the mock drafts a site has run and show the average position a player is going at. If Wes Welker has an RDP of 40, then don't reach to take him at pick 30. Let him come to you.
  • Have fun. Remember, have fun. Winning is fun, but so is the smack talk and ribbing at draft time. If someone picks Matthew Stafford in the first round, give him hell, he deserves it!
Now, if you really wanna have fun, take a look at Dalene


August 16, 2009

LaDainian Tominson: washed up?

There is a magic number in football for running backs: 370. Any runningbacks that have hit that number of carries in a given year have broken down after that. Jamal Lewis, Larry Johnson, LaDainian Tomlinson... the only exception is Eric Dickerson. And while they all had an exceptional year when carrying the ball so many times, only Jamal Lewis as rushed for over 1000 yards in his career after his 370+ carry season, and that was a few years after. Can Tomlinson do it?

He is at the magical 30 year old mark. And while, in a keeper league, his value should slide, simply from age, I would not bet against him this year. He will undoutedly split some carries with Darren Sproles, but Tomlinson's value is not just in his carries. He is a great receiver out of the backfield as well. In any redraft league, I would take Tomlinson in the middle to later first round and smile all the way to the bank. There is risk, yes, but his track record and abilities speak for themselves. And the San Diego offense has many weapons, so the entire attack does not rely on him, like it has in some years past. Take a chance and reap the rewards.

Now, for today's treat, I present sexy Mihaela





August 15, 2009

Tom Brady is back

Ok, everyone is weighing in on Tom Brady and his nice performance. After all, 10 of 15 for 2 TDs and an Int is not bad. I didnt see the game, but have read some write ups and watched SportCenter (as most of us do). Here are some thoughts on his performance and what you might expect from Mr. Bundchen this year.

1) Most quarterbacks that suffer such devastating knee injuries show some jitters or hesitation when they first get under center and feel some pressure. Brady showed neither. An excellent sign from a man coming back from major knee surgery.

2) The offensive line was VERY solid in protections. Brady was seldom under much pressure, allowing him to get a great feel for the speed of the game, very comfortably.

3) Weapons. Plain and simple. Randy Moss, Wes Welker, need I say more?

4) Scheme. Even with Josh McDaniels, his old offensive coordinator, now in Denver, the offensive should be very much like it was two years ago and when Brady and company put up 50 TDs. If he can be even 80% of the quarterback of that year, you end up with 40 TDs and near 4000 yards. That is a big year for any quarterback.

In the final analysis, if you take stock of what Brady did Friday evening, where he plays, the offense around him, and his history, taking Brady as the second, or even first quarterback taken is not a reach.

Bonus statement:Earlier this week, I mentioned Laveranues Coles as a possible value wideout. Chris Henry had a nice game for himself as well. Keep an eye on Henry. Even with his past, he has mad skills.

Finally, here is the hot Holly Weber





August 14, 2009

Fast Receivers = Fast Success?

Let's take a look at the wide receivers taken in this years first round. Right off the bat, rookie wideouts struggle for fantasy significance, even if first rounders. That said, in recent years, some rookies have made an immediate impact, think of Randy Moss, Anquan Boldin, Larry Fitzgerald and Marques Colston to name a few. Here is a look at the top picks this year and a little crystal ball work:

7th OAK - Darrius Heyward-Bey
While I have nothing against Darrius or how high Oakland took him, we have to look at who is throwing to him and the quality of the Oakland team of late. With JaMarcus Russell still feeling his way along, a marginal O-line protecting him, I think odds are against Heyward-Bey having a great fantasy impact.

10th SF - Michael Crabtree
Hold outs spell doom for almost every position, even for veterans, much less a rookie, but the longer Crabtree holds out, the less likely he will have any impact this year.

19th PHI - Jeremy Maclin
I like Maclin in Philly. He has a quality starter opposite him in DeSean Jackson, and no unsurmountable competition for the #2 spot. Plus, with Andy Reid's offense and tutelage, he could flourish.

22nd MIN - Percy Harvin
There is a lot of talk out of Minnesota about Harvin's skills, his attitude and their plans to use him. He might make his biggest impact on special teams, with Bernard Berrian as the solid primary and Sidney Rice seeming to have the #2 slot, he has a shot to contribute nicely as a #3 option. That does not mean huge fantasy numbers though.

29th NYG - Hakeem Nicks
If Nicks can fit into the roll of former Giant turned thug, Plaxico Burress, and be the sizable target and deep threat Burress was, Nicks might make a splash. But there is quality, if not outstandin,g set of WRs for him to beat out, so an outstanding season is not in the cards for Nicks.

30th TEN - Kenny Britt
Tennessee wideouts have historically under achieved, and I don't see that changing, especially with the ground oriented attack favored by coach Jeff Fisher.

In the final analysis, if you are going to take a risk or flier on a first round rookie WR, I would stick with Maclin, Harvin or Nick, and in that order.

Now, on to the ladies. For today, I present Trista Geyer





August 13, 2009

Value Wideouts (and Michael Vick?)

Everyone already knows all the premier wide receiveers, guys like Randy Moss, Larry Fitzgerald and Andre Johnson (who by the way, after hearing an interview with Jim Rome today, would love to have on my beloved Green Bay Packers - imagine pairing him with the equally humble Greg Jennings, along with Aaron Rodgers... yikes... but I digress). But who are those value... or rather under-valued wideouts out there? Guys who I would take a chance on this year.

Roy Williams - With the departure of TO, Williams should be the go to guy, and he produced nicely in a pathetic Detroit offense with ho-hum QBS. In the Jason Garrett offense, with Tony Romo tossing the ball 30+ times a game, Williams should be good for 1200+ and 10 TDs. (Jason Witten should also see an increase). In most rankings, Williams is no higher than #15 and could be a steal for someone in the 5 round or later.

Laveranues Coles - I mentioned him in my first post, and not to over state the point, but he could be steal for an owner as a #3 or #4 WR this year.

Devin Hestor - Word out of Chicago is Hestor worked extremely hard in the off season to improve his route running and precision. With Culter firmly in place chucking the ball, Hestor could fill a nice big play receiver roll. If were Ron Turner, I would definately put in some bubble screens.

Torry Holt - Yeah, yeah, I know. He is old, slow and washed up. With where he can be had in many drafts I have seen (normally past the 9th round), I would take a chance. Sure, he is on grass, but if his knee is healed up, Torry could produce nice #2 WR numbers as the best receiver in Jacksonville.

Keep an eye on: Percy Harvin. Minnesotans are seeing good things from Percy, contrary to the bad rap he had coming out of college.

Bonus section: Vick makes no difference in Philly.
Question one: even if Donovan McNabb gets hurt and by some fantasy, Vick takes over as the Iggles QB, he is still not relevent. During his time in Atlanta, pre-felon, he near was a top fantasy QB.
Question two: even if Donovin McNabb leaves Philly for greener pastures (or is forced out), and Vick takes over as the Iggles QB... see question one.

And on Today's Menu: Celeste Marie






August 12, 2009

QB Scoring

Whether in a performance scoring league or a more standard format, point per passing TD plays a huge part in when to draft a hurler. I have seen passing TDs at either 4 or 6 pts. If your QB gets 6 per TD vs 4 per TD, a little mathematical analysis tells the tale of the tape. Think back to the past few years when both Tom Brady and Peyton Manning both were near the magical 50 touchdown season. In the 4 point per TD model, 50 TDs gets you 200 pts. In the 6 point system, 300 pts. That kind of differential, coupled with an aggressive yardage system (say 1 point per 20 yards passing) and you will find, at year's end, QBs occupy many of the top scoring spots. So in round one, you might see Brady, Manning and Drew Brees selected in a first round, versus a RB only first round.

This is only food for thought. But if you have the time, try this recipe:
1 bottle of your leagues scoring system
1 package of 2009 projections (or substitute 2008 year end totals)
1 bucket of Excel ambition (a little knowledge would work)
Stir this concoction up and see what you find out. You might be surprised.

Now, on to your favorite part... the girls
I present Brooke Banx






August 11, 2009

Top RBs

Most mock drafts have Adrian Peterson as the first pick in the draft. Once you are past that first pick, there is open debate as to who to pick. Here is how I rank the next few RB positions:

2. Matt Forte
Some people are saying the arrival of Jay Cutler will impact Forte's productivity, but I think it will only enhance his production. With a legitimate threat at QB, defenses cannot stack the line and dare the Bears to beat them through the air. And Forte is a quality receiver. I would predict similar numbers as last year for Forte with a bit of an increase.

3. Michael Turner
Turner had a great year last year, yet the general notion is he will have a drop off this year. While to expect the exceptional year he had last year again, stats approaching 2008 are not out of the question. Turner is a solid pick at #3.

4. Maurice Jones-Drew
The only reason I have Jones-Drew ranked behind Forte and Turner is previous results. Forte and Turner turned in great years last year; Jones-Drew has yet to prove it. The pundits are predicting a major increase in Jones-Drews numbers, and he has never shouldered the load before. And while other smaller back have had great success (see Tiki Barber and Charlie Garner), he has to prove something before being placed ahead of Forte. Yet, the potential is there for Jones-Drew to have a break out year.

5. Frank Gore
Gore has a solid campaign in 2007, with a drop off last year. But with Mike Singletary taking over a coach and Gore hopefully getting past his nagging injuries, he should return to his previously solid numbers. 1300+ yards and 10+ TDs is not out of the question. He is only this far down the list because he is not a consistant threat outside the backfield.

Ok, ok, the question everyone is asking... where is DeAngelo Williams. I dont buy last year. He was a stud, granted, but Williams has been injury prone (check this year's status at Panther camp) and he will continue to share the load with James Stewart.

Now, on to today's babe. Check out Kimberley Rogers