Significant Injury News
Pierre Thomas - a sprained MCL is cause for some concern, but not alarm
Brett Favre - a cracked rib is reported, but as I type, he is playing Monday night against Houston
Terrell Owens - HE'S BACK! Can anyone say tired of training camp? Interesting note: He went in Rd5 last night.
Antonio Bryant - Returned to practice after a knee slowed him so far in camp
Clinton Portis - A rib injury from the weekend slowed him in practice
Wes Welker - ofcourse, an "undisclosed" injury kept him from the media on Monday
Tom Brady - His shoulder is sore, but not horrible on Monday according to New England, if you can believe them
Matt Schaub - Just watched him limp off the field in tonight's game with a leg injury of some kind
Carson Palmer - He returns to limited practice this week, careful drafting him too early
Greg Jennings - He took quite a scare on Saturday night, he suffered a concussion, but is ready for the opener
As I mentioned, our 12 team, PPR league draft was last night. Here is how the first round shaped up:
1 Adrian Peterson
2 Michael Turner
3 Matt Forte
4 Maurice Jones-Drew
5 DeAngelo Williams
6 Larry Fitzgerald
7 LaDainian Tomlinson
8 Chris Johnson
9 Steven Jackson
10 Frank Gore
11 Steve Slaton
12 Clinton Portis
Nothing surprising, but except to note it was all RBs except for Fitz at pick 6.
Todays Hottie: Stevie Lynn
August 31, 2009
August 30, 2009
Draft Results
Our 12 team performance PPR league draft was this evening. I had pick #3 and here is the team I ended up with.
Round 1: Matt Forte - best result here, AP and Turner went 1 & 2
Round 2: Greg Jennings - wanted a top WR, Calvin Johnson was there, but not sure of the Detroit QBs
Round 3: Brandon Jacobs - almost took Aaron Rodgers... but a quality #2 RB was too good
Round 4: Roy Williams - if healthy, getting Williams here is good value
Round 5: Ronnie Brown - again, if healthy this is a good value pick here
Round 6: Chris Wells - a bit of a reach here, but RBs drive fantasy success
Round 7: Antonio Bryant - I think Byron Leftwich is going to have a good year, Bryant is the primary target
Round 8: John Carlson - will have as good a yaer as Hasselback allows
Round 9: Ben Roethlisberger - not bad for my first QB in the 9th round
Round 10: Devin Hester - not only the only WR in Chicago, but league gives return points to the Def & player
Round 11: Chris Henry - I had my eye on Henry, had a really good pre-season
Round 12: Washington D - Defenses score fairly well in the league, Haynesworth will make this D good
Round 13: Ricky Williams - hand cuff for Brown
Round 14: Kyle Orton - was not sure on taking a back up QB in the first place, but good value
Round 15: Nick Folk - needed a kicker, Folk should do fine
Round 16: JerMichael Finley - being a Packer fan, watched Finley make NICE plays each week, could start soon
Overall, I was happy. Pivotal pick was round 3. Could have picked Rodgers or was eyeing Ryan Grant. Roddy White was on my radar too, but Jacobs here made too much sense.
Todays Hottie: Jennifer Emerson
Round 1: Matt Forte - best result here, AP and Turner went 1 & 2
Round 2: Greg Jennings - wanted a top WR, Calvin Johnson was there, but not sure of the Detroit QBs
Round 3: Brandon Jacobs - almost took Aaron Rodgers... but a quality #2 RB was too good
Round 4: Roy Williams - if healthy, getting Williams here is good value
Round 5: Ronnie Brown - again, if healthy this is a good value pick here
Round 6: Chris Wells - a bit of a reach here, but RBs drive fantasy success
Round 7: Antonio Bryant - I think Byron Leftwich is going to have a good year, Bryant is the primary target
Round 8: John Carlson - will have as good a yaer as Hasselback allows
Round 9: Ben Roethlisberger - not bad for my first QB in the 9th round
Round 10: Devin Hester - not only the only WR in Chicago, but league gives return points to the Def & player
Round 11: Chris Henry - I had my eye on Henry, had a really good pre-season
Round 12: Washington D - Defenses score fairly well in the league, Haynesworth will make this D good
Round 13: Ricky Williams - hand cuff for Brown
Round 14: Kyle Orton - was not sure on taking a back up QB in the first place, but good value
Round 15: Nick Folk - needed a kicker, Folk should do fine
Round 16: JerMichael Finley - being a Packer fan, watched Finley make NICE plays each week, could start soon
Overall, I was happy. Pivotal pick was round 3. Could have picked Rodgers or was eyeing Ryan Grant. Roddy White was on my radar too, but Jacobs here made too much sense.
Todays Hottie: Jennifer Emerson
August 29, 2009
Draft Prep 201
My draft is tomorrow afternoon. I spent time doing more reading and consolidating of my position by position guys I'd really love to have, guys I'd love to have and guys I'd like to have. Translated, fantasy studs I am targeting, second tier guys I am targeting and sleepers or other guys of interest.
Here is what I have ready for my draft.
- A cheat sheet highlighted with the above "guys"
- ADP sheets for QBs, RBs, WRs, and TEs Found some good information on CBS Sportsline or Yahoo Sports
- NFL Roster depth charts for all 32 teams
In addition, I have done three mock drafts, again on CBS Sportsline, making sure to get the same draft slot in the same league size, same position starting options as my league tomorrow. Lastly, I have reviewed my scoring rules, which is a performance league with points per receipt.
Here are some impressions from the weekend:
- Ryan Grant should be moving up most fantasy draft boards
- Chris Henry (WR - CIN) could be a nice sleeper
- Watch Tom Brady's shoulder carefully
- If you want a good defense, Albert Haynesworth has made the Redskin defense a legitimate top 10
- Matt Hasselbeck is back and will be a tremendous value pick
- Drew "Freakin" Brees. Any questions?
- Looks like Brady Quinn will take the Browns starting QB job, but he is nothing more than a bye week replacement
- Is Joe Flacco ready to be a viable fantasy starter? Dare I say a #2?
- Beanie Wells was impressive in his first action
- Is Matt Leinart finally waking up? 300+ and 3 TDs?
Todays Hottie: Jessica Renee
Here is what I have ready for my draft.
- A cheat sheet highlighted with the above "guys"
- ADP sheets for QBs, RBs, WRs, and TEs Found some good information on CBS Sportsline or Yahoo Sports
- NFL Roster depth charts for all 32 teams
In addition, I have done three mock drafts, again on CBS Sportsline, making sure to get the same draft slot in the same league size, same position starting options as my league tomorrow. Lastly, I have reviewed my scoring rules, which is a performance league with points per receipt.
Here are some impressions from the weekend:
- Ryan Grant should be moving up most fantasy draft boards
- Chris Henry (WR - CIN) could be a nice sleeper
- Watch Tom Brady's shoulder carefully
- If you want a good defense, Albert Haynesworth has made the Redskin defense a legitimate top 10
- Matt Hasselbeck is back and will be a tremendous value pick
- Drew "Freakin" Brees. Any questions?
- Looks like Brady Quinn will take the Browns starting QB job, but he is nothing more than a bye week replacement
- Is Joe Flacco ready to be a viable fantasy starter? Dare I say a #2?
- Beanie Wells was impressive in his first action
- Is Matt Leinart finally waking up? 300+ and 3 TDs?
Todays Hottie: Jessica Renee
August 28, 2009
Draft Prep 101
I was getting ready for my own fantasy draft tonight, thinking about all the tools and information I wanted or needed. Now, I know there are many theories and methods for getting ready, but figured sharing my own thoughts on the subject might be interesting to someone... anyone. So, here are a few things that I am getting ready for my draft.
League Scoring Rules
If you don't know your rules well ahead of your draft and as you are researching your target players, sleepers, etc, then you are behind the eight ball. Know your league scoring rules and how that might impact positions and players in relation to each other. Passing TD scoring for instance will change how you rank a QB in comparison to a RB. Points per receipt also have an impact. A RB who can catch out of the backfield has increased value. I always have a copy or the league scoring rules, or at least know them.
Mock Drafts
There are many places to participate in mock drafts. Cbs Sportsline, ESPN, Yahoo Sports, etc. Find a draft that looks similar to yours and give it a try. It gives you a feel for how your draft might go. And if you know your draft position already, that helps, try to get your spot.
Cheat SheetYou can get a cheat sheet from all over the net, magazines or create one for yourself. Just a hard copy is all I need. I will highlight my studs, guys I wouldn't mind getting (tier 2 for me) and sleepers or players of interest. That way, I can adjust my strategy at draft time, knowing the players I like.
ADP [Average Draft Position]I also will print out a fairly long list of ADP for each position and composit. I use this in conjunction with my cheat sheet. For instance, if I am targeting Ryan Grant, the cheat sheet is a sort of ranking and tehe ADP sheet will give me an idea of roughly what round he is going in, or what pick.
Rule to live by
Be flexible. Even if you want Calvin Johnson, inevitably someone will snap him up one pick before you were going to. So, settle for Randy Moss or Greg Jennings.
Cardinal Rule
Have fun. If you are in it for the money, then you are going to have to way more serious than I am.
League Scoring Rules
If you don't know your rules well ahead of your draft and as you are researching your target players, sleepers, etc, then you are behind the eight ball. Know your league scoring rules and how that might impact positions and players in relation to each other. Passing TD scoring for instance will change how you rank a QB in comparison to a RB. Points per receipt also have an impact. A RB who can catch out of the backfield has increased value. I always have a copy or the league scoring rules, or at least know them.
Mock Drafts
There are many places to participate in mock drafts. Cbs Sportsline, ESPN, Yahoo Sports, etc. Find a draft that looks similar to yours and give it a try. It gives you a feel for how your draft might go. And if you know your draft position already, that helps, try to get your spot.
Cheat SheetYou can get a cheat sheet from all over the net, magazines or create one for yourself. Just a hard copy is all I need. I will highlight my studs, guys I wouldn't mind getting (tier 2 for me) and sleepers or players of interest. That way, I can adjust my strategy at draft time, knowing the players I like.
ADP [Average Draft Position]I also will print out a fairly long list of ADP for each position and composit. I use this in conjunction with my cheat sheet. For instance, if I am targeting Ryan Grant, the cheat sheet is a sort of ranking and tehe ADP sheet will give me an idea of roughly what round he is going in, or what pick.
Rule to live by
Be flexible. Even if you want Calvin Johnson, inevitably someone will snap him up one pick before you were going to. So, settle for Randy Moss or Greg Jennings.
Cardinal Rule
Have fun. If you are in it for the money, then you are going to have to way more serious than I am.
Today's Hottie: Martika Ibarra
August 27, 2009
The Indianapolis Scoring Machine
The Indianapolis Colts have been a fantasy scoring machine for many years. Whether talking about Peyton Manning, Marvin Harrison, Reggie Wayne, Dallas Clark, Brandon Stokely, etc, the aerial show that is the Colts offense has produce some of fantasy football's best scoring wide outs, not to mention, the best QB in fantasy history.
But something has changed. Marvin Harrison. It used to be Marvin and whoever else would catch the rest of Peyton's lasar passes as second fiddle. But Harrison has moved on and Reggie Wayne has taken up the mantle of top fantasy receiver in Indy. So, the question remains, where will the rest of the balls go?
From standpoint, while a legitmate option might emerge from the depth chart, all are no-name players who are a crap shoot at best. For my money, I would count on Wayne to remain the fantasy stud, with both Anthony Gonzales and Dallas Clark to see a nice improvement on their numbers, particularly Gonzales. Wayne is in line for 1300+, 10+ and 100+ (yards, TDs and receptions). I would put my money on the Anthony putting up 1000+, 6+ and 75+ for himself.
This would be a nice third WR options, or perhaps even a #2.
Now, for Clark, he is already one of the prime tightends in the game, competely with Jason Witten, Tony Gonzales and Antonio Gates. With an expected boost from the absense of Harrison, Clark could be the best of the bunch.
This evening, we will featuring the lovely Skyler Haze
But something has changed. Marvin Harrison. It used to be Marvin and whoever else would catch the rest of Peyton's lasar passes as second fiddle. But Harrison has moved on and Reggie Wayne has taken up the mantle of top fantasy receiver in Indy. So, the question remains, where will the rest of the balls go?
From standpoint, while a legitmate option might emerge from the depth chart, all are no-name players who are a crap shoot at best. For my money, I would count on Wayne to remain the fantasy stud, with both Anthony Gonzales and Dallas Clark to see a nice improvement on their numbers, particularly Gonzales. Wayne is in line for 1300+, 10+ and 100+ (yards, TDs and receptions). I would put my money on the Anthony putting up 1000+, 6+ and 75+ for himself.
This would be a nice third WR options, or perhaps even a #2.
Now, for Clark, he is already one of the prime tightends in the game, competely with Jason Witten, Tony Gonzales and Antonio Gates. With an expected boost from the absense of Harrison, Clark could be the best of the bunch.
This evening, we will featuring the lovely Skyler Haze
August 26, 2009
Primary Backs
After a brief vacation induced hiatus, I am back.
Like all preseasons and prior to fantasy draft days, I do a ton of reading. I have become a fan of Fantasy Clicks, written by Jay Clemons on SI.com. I don't always agree with his insights, but it IS interesting reading nonetheless. And hell, if you can't read someone else's opinion and take from it what you will, then good luck. Anyhow, recently, the following running backs were listed at the 11 running backs who "WILL carry the load" for their respective teams:
Michael Turner, Falcons
Matt Forte, Bears
Maurice Jones-Drew, Jaguars
Steven Jackson, Rams
Steve Slaton, Texans
Brandon Jacobs, Giants
Ronnie Brown, Dolphins
Clinton Portis, Redskins
Kevin Smith, Lions
Cedric Benson, Bengals
Julius Jones, Seahawks
I agree with most of the list, but not all. For instance, while Brandon Jacobs is a nice fantasy commodity, his running mate, Ahmad Bradshaw will have an almost equal year (plus Jacobs has been injury prone). Still, there are a few nuggets to be gained from looking at the analysis.
Take a look at Cedric Benson at spot #10. The reason I point him out is, IF he is the primary back in Cincinnati, he could have excellent value where he is going in drafts. I just checked the average draft position on him and found him at pick 83, or somewhere in round 7 or 8 depending on the number of teams in your league. You can't beat a starting running back taken that late in the game.
Ronnie Brown. Now there is an interesting accessment. Brown is coming off of major knee surgery. He also has a backfield mate in Ricky Williams. I would use caution in taking him too early in drafts. His ADP is around 31, which means late 3 round. In my estimation, that is a bit early for Brown.
I am not sure how Kevin Smith became fantasy relevent. Detroit might be moving in the right direction, but if they win more than 5 games this year, I would be surprised. And from a fantasy perspective, the only player I am watching with any great interest is Calvin Johnson (with good reason). But I am not puying Smith as anything more than mediocre. I will eat crow if he is more than a 30th ranked fantasy back. He is at 38 in RDP right now.
Now for the eye candy. See the sweetness that is Jessica Barton.
August 22, 2009
Travel Day
Apologies all, but I had a travel day yesterday. I will be back to posting again today. But, since I was gone, I will submit Kristi Lynn in way of apology. Enjoy!
August 20, 2009
Offensive Lines
No fantasy league I have seen incorporates scoring for offensive linemen, even if they recover a fumble for a TD. But there is a much to learn about the performance of offensive players based on the quality of their offensive linemen.
If you are lucky enough to find good, solid articles on offensive lines, read them. They can weigh heavily in how particularly a runningback or quarterback perform, and indirectly, on wide receivers. If Tom Brady had crap for a line in front of him, do you think he would be a top tier fantasy option? Absolutely not. And if Brady does not have time to throw the ball, how do you think Randy Moss and Wes Welker would do?
For myself, I look for offensive lines that have remained in tact, or have had very little change. The Giants offensive line is regarded as one of the best, so Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw are both regarded as good options. And while Eli Manning is not a top tier QB, that is only because their ground game is dominant.
Below is a list I found on CBSSportsline.com. And while I am not in total agreement to the rankings, this is a good guide:
Carolina Panthers
New York Giants
Dallas Cowboys
New York Jets
Philadelphia Eagles
New England Patriots
Atlanta Falcons
Denver Broncos
San Diego Chargers
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Indianapolis Colts
Tennessee Titans
Minnesota Vikings
Baltimore Ravens
New Orleans Saints
Houston Texans
Jacksonville Jaguars
Miami Dolphins
Cleveland Browns
San Francisco 49ers
Seattle Seahawks
Arizona Cardinals
St. Louis Rams
Kansas City Chiefs
Green Bay Packers
Oakland Raiders
Pittsburgh Steelers
Detroit Lions
Chicago Bears
Washington Redskins
Cincinnati Bengals
Buffalo Bills
In the final analysis, it is far more important to know the performance players, but having some insight into the offensive lines can help a good fantasy owner to make up their mind on some players and decisions.
For today's babe, it is the smoking hot Michelle Baker
If you are lucky enough to find good, solid articles on offensive lines, read them. They can weigh heavily in how particularly a runningback or quarterback perform, and indirectly, on wide receivers. If Tom Brady had crap for a line in front of him, do you think he would be a top tier fantasy option? Absolutely not. And if Brady does not have time to throw the ball, how do you think Randy Moss and Wes Welker would do?
For myself, I look for offensive lines that have remained in tact, or have had very little change. The Giants offensive line is regarded as one of the best, so Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw are both regarded as good options. And while Eli Manning is not a top tier QB, that is only because their ground game is dominant.
Below is a list I found on CBSSportsline.com. And while I am not in total agreement to the rankings, this is a good guide:
Carolina Panthers
New York Giants
Dallas Cowboys
New York Jets
Philadelphia Eagles
New England Patriots
Atlanta Falcons
Denver Broncos
San Diego Chargers
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Indianapolis Colts
Tennessee Titans
Minnesota Vikings
Baltimore Ravens
New Orleans Saints
Houston Texans
Jacksonville Jaguars
Miami Dolphins
Cleveland Browns
San Francisco 49ers
Seattle Seahawks
Arizona Cardinals
St. Louis Rams
Kansas City Chiefs
Green Bay Packers
Oakland Raiders
Pittsburgh Steelers
Detroit Lions
Chicago Bears
Washington Redskins
Cincinnati Bengals
Buffalo Bills
In the final analysis, it is far more important to know the performance players, but having some insight into the offensive lines can help a good fantasy owner to make up their mind on some players and decisions.
For today's babe, it is the smoking hot Michelle Baker
August 19, 2009
Pay attention... or not.
Everyone knows the elite quarterbacks and those on the cusp. Peyton Manning, Tom Brady and Drew Brees are the cream of the crop, with Aaron Rogers and Phillip Rivers coming up right behind. But once you get by Tony Romo and Kurt Warner, there is a 10 spot drop off in ADP for quarters, which is significant. Here are three you should pay attention to and three perhaps not.
Pay Attention
Carson PalmerHe will have a steady wide receiving crews with Johnson, Coles and Henry. As long as his offensive line can give him time, Palmer could have a nice season.
Matt Hasselbeck
He is on the mend and has looked good in camp so far this season. His wide receivers are not well known, but if Hasselbeck can spread the ball around, with good health, should return to tier 2 status.
Donovan McNabb
With a promising group of young receivers (and I think Maclin could be the cream of the rookie WR crop), a solid receiving back out of the backfield in Westbrook, and Andy Reid's pass oriented offense, McNabb is still a tier two QB.
Nevermind
Jay Culter
I love Culter's arm and skills, but he really does not have a great crew to toss the pigskin to. Devin Hester might be a nice nugget receiver in the middle rounds, but I don't see him surpassing 3200 yards and 22 TDs. Average for a fantasy QB. One cavot, if he uses Forte and Olsen well, he could be better.
Matt Cassel
Just too early to annoit Cassel into the fantasy QB elite. Their offensive line is a work in progress, and this is a guy who was sacked more than any other in football last year with the New England line blocking for him. His inexperience made him into the second coming of Drew Bledsoe in Foxboro.
Joe Flacco
His leadership and physical skills are good, but the Baltimore run first offensive and average wide receiving crew make Flacco a middle of the road fantasy QB. Heck, he doesn't even have a reliable receiving option out of the backfield.
And here is another thing to pay attention to: Lauren Reese
Pay Attention
Carson PalmerHe will have a steady wide receiving crews with Johnson, Coles and Henry. As long as his offensive line can give him time, Palmer could have a nice season.
Matt Hasselbeck
He is on the mend and has looked good in camp so far this season. His wide receivers are not well known, but if Hasselbeck can spread the ball around, with good health, should return to tier 2 status.
Donovan McNabb
With a promising group of young receivers (and I think Maclin could be the cream of the rookie WR crop), a solid receiving back out of the backfield in Westbrook, and Andy Reid's pass oriented offense, McNabb is still a tier two QB.
Nevermind
Jay Culter
I love Culter's arm and skills, but he really does not have a great crew to toss the pigskin to. Devin Hester might be a nice nugget receiver in the middle rounds, but I don't see him surpassing 3200 yards and 22 TDs. Average for a fantasy QB. One cavot, if he uses Forte and Olsen well, he could be better.
Matt Cassel
Just too early to annoit Cassel into the fantasy QB elite. Their offensive line is a work in progress, and this is a guy who was sacked more than any other in football last year with the New England line blocking for him. His inexperience made him into the second coming of Drew Bledsoe in Foxboro.
Joe Flacco
His leadership and physical skills are good, but the Baltimore run first offensive and average wide receiving crew make Flacco a middle of the road fantasy QB. Heck, he doesn't even have a reliable receiving option out of the backfield.
And here is another thing to pay attention to: Lauren Reese
August 18, 2009
Back again... who cares?
Brett Favre unretired again. Now, being a life-long Packers fan AND a sworn Favre fan, I have many opinions about the whole mess over the past couple years, including today's Viking's announcement. But there is definately a fanatsy spin here.
First, Favre is far from done. He might be older and slower, but as he showed during the first half of 2008, he can still be fantasy football viable. Without a bumb shoulder and tendon is his throwing arm, he could have been near the 30 TD mark and most likely, would have been less than the 22 INTs he ended up with. For me, it is not about if he has the talent. The talent remains.
Second, Minnesota has a strong defense and an excellent running game, one of the best in the league. Adrian Peterson is either the first or second pick in almost every mock draft or rating system you see. There is no reason that Minnesota will change the formula.
Third, Favre has been most effective in his career when he was not the only answer. Take 2007 for instance. Ryan Grant put up excellent numbers and the weight of the team did not fall on #4's shoulders. Given that, Favre could be a decent #2 fantasy option. He won't put up the extravagent numbers, but if a defense stacks the line with 8 in the box, or even 9, he still has the skills to burn single coverage with Bernard Berrian on the outside.
In the end, I won't bet the farm on Favre and putting up 30+ TD with 3500+ yards, but 25ish TDs and 3000+ yards is possible. By any measure, that is not a bad fantasy season.
And now, featuring Janis Godlewski
First, Favre is far from done. He might be older and slower, but as he showed during the first half of 2008, he can still be fantasy football viable. Without a bumb shoulder and tendon is his throwing arm, he could have been near the 30 TD mark and most likely, would have been less than the 22 INTs he ended up with. For me, it is not about if he has the talent. The talent remains.
Second, Minnesota has a strong defense and an excellent running game, one of the best in the league. Adrian Peterson is either the first or second pick in almost every mock draft or rating system you see. There is no reason that Minnesota will change the formula.
Third, Favre has been most effective in his career when he was not the only answer. Take 2007 for instance. Ryan Grant put up excellent numbers and the weight of the team did not fall on #4's shoulders. Given that, Favre could be a decent #2 fantasy option. He won't put up the extravagent numbers, but if a defense stacks the line with 8 in the box, or even 9, he still has the skills to burn single coverage with Bernard Berrian on the outside.
In the end, I won't bet the farm on Favre and putting up 30+ TD with 3500+ yards, but 25ish TDs and 3000+ yards is possible. By any measure, that is not a bad fantasy season.
And now, featuring Janis Godlewski
August 17, 2009
Don't be a boy scout, but be prepared.
The secret of any fantasy football draft is to be prepared. Here are a few things to consider when getting ready for your draft.
- Know your league rules. What is the scoring? Points per receipt or 6 point passing vs 4 point passing TDs make a huge difference in your draft strategy. Keeper league or redraft - this would go a long way towards where a veteran RB might go, like, say, LaDainian Tomlinson.
- Research. Know the players you like and know why you like them. For instance, for running backs, will the back you have your eye on be the main option, or will they be in a RBBC (running back by committee). Will the sleeper WR pick you are targetting in the 10th round actually be a starter?
- Keep an eye on the preseason, not for stats, but for who will be starting. It is critical, just before your draft, to know how the roster battles are panning out. Who will be a starter, who will be a back up?
- Watch out for homer picks. I am a lifelong Packers fan, but in reality, the difference between Aaron Rogers and Phillip Rivers is minimal, although Rogers is typically going a half dozen picks sooner than Rivers.
- Don't reach. This ties right into the homer picks. A valuable statistic that almost every viable fantasy site has is ADP or Average Draft Position. This is typically a composite of all the mock drafts a site has run and show the average position a player is going at. If Wes Welker has an RDP of 40, then don't reach to take him at pick 30. Let him come to you.
- Have fun. Remember, have fun. Winning is fun, but so is the smack talk and ribbing at draft time. If someone picks Matthew Stafford in the first round, give him hell, he deserves it!
Now, if you really wanna have fun, take a look at Dalene
August 16, 2009
LaDainian Tominson: washed up?
There is a magic number in football for running backs: 370. Any runningbacks that have hit that number of carries in a given year have broken down after that. Jamal Lewis, Larry Johnson, LaDainian Tomlinson... the only exception is Eric Dickerson. And while they all had an exceptional year when carrying the ball so many times, only Jamal Lewis as rushed for over 1000 yards in his career after his 370+ carry season, and that was a few years after. Can Tomlinson do it?
He is at the magical 30 year old mark. And while, in a keeper league, his value should slide, simply from age, I would not bet against him this year. He will undoutedly split some carries with Darren Sproles, but Tomlinson's value is not just in his carries. He is a great receiver out of the backfield as well. In any redraft league, I would take Tomlinson in the middle to later first round and smile all the way to the bank. There is risk, yes, but his track record and abilities speak for themselves. And the San Diego offense has many weapons, so the entire attack does not rely on him, like it has in some years past. Take a chance and reap the rewards.
Now, for today's treat, I present sexy Mihaela
He is at the magical 30 year old mark. And while, in a keeper league, his value should slide, simply from age, I would not bet against him this year. He will undoutedly split some carries with Darren Sproles, but Tomlinson's value is not just in his carries. He is a great receiver out of the backfield as well. In any redraft league, I would take Tomlinson in the middle to later first round and smile all the way to the bank. There is risk, yes, but his track record and abilities speak for themselves. And the San Diego offense has many weapons, so the entire attack does not rely on him, like it has in some years past. Take a chance and reap the rewards.
Now, for today's treat, I present sexy Mihaela
August 15, 2009
Tom Brady is back
Ok, everyone is weighing in on Tom Brady and his nice performance. After all, 10 of 15 for 2 TDs and an Int is not bad. I didnt see the game, but have read some write ups and watched SportCenter (as most of us do). Here are some thoughts on his performance and what you might expect from Mr. Bundchen this year.
1) Most quarterbacks that suffer such devastating knee injuries show some jitters or hesitation when they first get under center and feel some pressure. Brady showed neither. An excellent sign from a man coming back from major knee surgery.
2) The offensive line was VERY solid in protections. Brady was seldom under much pressure, allowing him to get a great feel for the speed of the game, very comfortably.
3) Weapons. Plain and simple. Randy Moss, Wes Welker, need I say more?
4) Scheme. Even with Josh McDaniels, his old offensive coordinator, now in Denver, the offensive should be very much like it was two years ago and when Brady and company put up 50 TDs. If he can be even 80% of the quarterback of that year, you end up with 40 TDs and near 4000 yards. That is a big year for any quarterback.
In the final analysis, if you take stock of what Brady did Friday evening, where he plays, the offense around him, and his history, taking Brady as the second, or even first quarterback taken is not a reach.
Bonus statement:Earlier this week, I mentioned Laveranues Coles as a possible value wideout. Chris Henry had a nice game for himself as well. Keep an eye on Henry. Even with his past, he has mad skills.
Finally, here is the hot Holly Weber
1) Most quarterbacks that suffer such devastating knee injuries show some jitters or hesitation when they first get under center and feel some pressure. Brady showed neither. An excellent sign from a man coming back from major knee surgery.
2) The offensive line was VERY solid in protections. Brady was seldom under much pressure, allowing him to get a great feel for the speed of the game, very comfortably.
3) Weapons. Plain and simple. Randy Moss, Wes Welker, need I say more?
4) Scheme. Even with Josh McDaniels, his old offensive coordinator, now in Denver, the offensive should be very much like it was two years ago and when Brady and company put up 50 TDs. If he can be even 80% of the quarterback of that year, you end up with 40 TDs and near 4000 yards. That is a big year for any quarterback.
In the final analysis, if you take stock of what Brady did Friday evening, where he plays, the offense around him, and his history, taking Brady as the second, or even first quarterback taken is not a reach.
Bonus statement:Earlier this week, I mentioned Laveranues Coles as a possible value wideout. Chris Henry had a nice game for himself as well. Keep an eye on Henry. Even with his past, he has mad skills.
Finally, here is the hot Holly Weber
August 14, 2009
Fast Receivers = Fast Success?
Let's take a look at the wide receivers taken in this years first round. Right off the bat, rookie wideouts struggle for fantasy significance, even if first rounders. That said, in recent years, some rookies have made an immediate impact, think of Randy Moss, Anquan Boldin, Larry Fitzgerald and Marques Colston to name a few. Here is a look at the top picks this year and a little crystal ball work:
7th OAK - Darrius Heyward-Bey
While I have nothing against Darrius or how high Oakland took him, we have to look at who is throwing to him and the quality of the Oakland team of late. With JaMarcus Russell still feeling his way along, a marginal O-line protecting him, I think odds are against Heyward-Bey having a great fantasy impact.
10th SF - Michael Crabtree
Hold outs spell doom for almost every position, even for veterans, much less a rookie, but the longer Crabtree holds out, the less likely he will have any impact this year.
19th PHI - Jeremy Maclin
I like Maclin in Philly. He has a quality starter opposite him in DeSean Jackson, and no unsurmountable competition for the #2 spot. Plus, with Andy Reid's offense and tutelage, he could flourish.
22nd MIN - Percy Harvin
There is a lot of talk out of Minnesota about Harvin's skills, his attitude and their plans to use him. He might make his biggest impact on special teams, with Bernard Berrian as the solid primary and Sidney Rice seeming to have the #2 slot, he has a shot to contribute nicely as a #3 option. That does not mean huge fantasy numbers though.
29th NYG - Hakeem Nicks
If Nicks can fit into the roll of former Giant turned thug, Plaxico Burress, and be the sizable target and deep threat Burress was, Nicks might make a splash. But there is quality, if not outstandin,g set of WRs for him to beat out, so an outstanding season is not in the cards for Nicks.
30th TEN - Kenny Britt
Tennessee wideouts have historically under achieved, and I don't see that changing, especially with the ground oriented attack favored by coach Jeff Fisher.
In the final analysis, if you are going to take a risk or flier on a first round rookie WR, I would stick with Maclin, Harvin or Nick, and in that order.
Now, on to the ladies. For today, I present Trista Geyer
7th OAK - Darrius Heyward-Bey
While I have nothing against Darrius or how high Oakland took him, we have to look at who is throwing to him and the quality of the Oakland team of late. With JaMarcus Russell still feeling his way along, a marginal O-line protecting him, I think odds are against Heyward-Bey having a great fantasy impact.
10th SF - Michael Crabtree
Hold outs spell doom for almost every position, even for veterans, much less a rookie, but the longer Crabtree holds out, the less likely he will have any impact this year.
19th PHI - Jeremy Maclin
I like Maclin in Philly. He has a quality starter opposite him in DeSean Jackson, and no unsurmountable competition for the #2 spot. Plus, with Andy Reid's offense and tutelage, he could flourish.
22nd MIN - Percy Harvin
There is a lot of talk out of Minnesota about Harvin's skills, his attitude and their plans to use him. He might make his biggest impact on special teams, with Bernard Berrian as the solid primary and Sidney Rice seeming to have the #2 slot, he has a shot to contribute nicely as a #3 option. That does not mean huge fantasy numbers though.
29th NYG - Hakeem Nicks
If Nicks can fit into the roll of former Giant turned thug, Plaxico Burress, and be the sizable target and deep threat Burress was, Nicks might make a splash. But there is quality, if not outstandin,g set of WRs for him to beat out, so an outstanding season is not in the cards for Nicks.
30th TEN - Kenny Britt
Tennessee wideouts have historically under achieved, and I don't see that changing, especially with the ground oriented attack favored by coach Jeff Fisher.
In the final analysis, if you are going to take a risk or flier on a first round rookie WR, I would stick with Maclin, Harvin or Nick, and in that order.
Now, on to the ladies. For today, I present Trista Geyer
August 13, 2009
Value Wideouts (and Michael Vick?)
Everyone already knows all the premier wide receiveers, guys like Randy Moss, Larry Fitzgerald and Andre Johnson (who by the way, after hearing an interview with Jim Rome today, would love to have on my beloved Green Bay Packers - imagine pairing him with the equally humble Greg Jennings, along with Aaron Rodgers... yikes... but I digress). But who are those value... or rather under-valued wideouts out there? Guys who I would take a chance on this year.
Roy Williams - With the departure of TO, Williams should be the go to guy, and he produced nicely in a pathetic Detroit offense with ho-hum QBS. In the Jason Garrett offense, with Tony Romo tossing the ball 30+ times a game, Williams should be good for 1200+ and 10 TDs. (Jason Witten should also see an increase). In most rankings, Williams is no higher than #15 and could be a steal for someone in the 5 round or later.
Laveranues Coles - I mentioned him in my first post, and not to over state the point, but he could be steal for an owner as a #3 or #4 WR this year.
Devin Hestor - Word out of Chicago is Hestor worked extremely hard in the off season to improve his route running and precision. With Culter firmly in place chucking the ball, Hestor could fill a nice big play receiver roll. If were Ron Turner, I would definately put in some bubble screens.
Torry Holt - Yeah, yeah, I know. He is old, slow and washed up. With where he can be had in many drafts I have seen (normally past the 9th round), I would take a chance. Sure, he is on grass, but if his knee is healed up, Torry could produce nice #2 WR numbers as the best receiver in Jacksonville.
Keep an eye on: Percy Harvin. Minnesotans are seeing good things from Percy, contrary to the bad rap he had coming out of college.
Bonus section: Vick makes no difference in Philly.
Question one: even if Donovan McNabb gets hurt and by some fantasy, Vick takes over as the Iggles QB, he is still not relevent. During his time in Atlanta, pre-felon, he near was a top fantasy QB.
Question two: even if Donovin McNabb leaves Philly for greener pastures (or is forced out), and Vick takes over as the Iggles QB... see question one.
And on Today's Menu: Celeste Marie
Roy Williams - With the departure of TO, Williams should be the go to guy, and he produced nicely in a pathetic Detroit offense with ho-hum QBS. In the Jason Garrett offense, with Tony Romo tossing the ball 30+ times a game, Williams should be good for 1200+ and 10 TDs. (Jason Witten should also see an increase). In most rankings, Williams is no higher than #15 and could be a steal for someone in the 5 round or later.
Laveranues Coles - I mentioned him in my first post, and not to over state the point, but he could be steal for an owner as a #3 or #4 WR this year.
Devin Hestor - Word out of Chicago is Hestor worked extremely hard in the off season to improve his route running and precision. With Culter firmly in place chucking the ball, Hestor could fill a nice big play receiver roll. If were Ron Turner, I would definately put in some bubble screens.
Torry Holt - Yeah, yeah, I know. He is old, slow and washed up. With where he can be had in many drafts I have seen (normally past the 9th round), I would take a chance. Sure, he is on grass, but if his knee is healed up, Torry could produce nice #2 WR numbers as the best receiver in Jacksonville.
Keep an eye on: Percy Harvin. Minnesotans are seeing good things from Percy, contrary to the bad rap he had coming out of college.
Bonus section: Vick makes no difference in Philly.
Question one: even if Donovan McNabb gets hurt and by some fantasy, Vick takes over as the Iggles QB, he is still not relevent. During his time in Atlanta, pre-felon, he near was a top fantasy QB.
Question two: even if Donovin McNabb leaves Philly for greener pastures (or is forced out), and Vick takes over as the Iggles QB... see question one.
And on Today's Menu: Celeste Marie
August 12, 2009
QB Scoring
Whether in a performance scoring league or a more standard format, point per passing TD plays a huge part in when to draft a hurler. I have seen passing TDs at either 4 or 6 pts. If your QB gets 6 per TD vs 4 per TD, a little mathematical analysis tells the tale of the tape. Think back to the past few years when both Tom Brady and Peyton Manning both were near the magical 50 touchdown season. In the 4 point per TD model, 50 TDs gets you 200 pts. In the 6 point system, 300 pts. That kind of differential, coupled with an aggressive yardage system (say 1 point per 20 yards passing) and you will find, at year's end, QBs occupy many of the top scoring spots. So in round one, you might see Brady, Manning and Drew Brees selected in a first round, versus a RB only first round.
This is only food for thought. But if you have the time, try this recipe:
1 bottle of your leagues scoring system
1 package of 2009 projections (or substitute 2008 year end totals)
1 bucket of Excel ambition (a little knowledge would work)
Stir this concoction up and see what you find out. You might be surprised.
Now, on to your favorite part... the girls
I present Brooke Banx
This is only food for thought. But if you have the time, try this recipe:
1 bottle of your leagues scoring system
1 package of 2009 projections (or substitute 2008 year end totals)
1 bucket of Excel ambition (a little knowledge would work)
Stir this concoction up and see what you find out. You might be surprised.
Now, on to your favorite part... the girls
I present Brooke Banx
August 11, 2009
Top RBs
Most mock drafts have Adrian Peterson as the first pick in the draft. Once you are past that first pick, there is open debate as to who to pick. Here is how I rank the next few RB positions:
2. Matt Forte
Some people are saying the arrival of Jay Cutler will impact Forte's productivity, but I think it will only enhance his production. With a legitimate threat at QB, defenses cannot stack the line and dare the Bears to beat them through the air. And Forte is a quality receiver. I would predict similar numbers as last year for Forte with a bit of an increase.
3. Michael Turner
Turner had a great year last year, yet the general notion is he will have a drop off this year. While to expect the exceptional year he had last year again, stats approaching 2008 are not out of the question. Turner is a solid pick at #3.
4. Maurice Jones-Drew
The only reason I have Jones-Drew ranked behind Forte and Turner is previous results. Forte and Turner turned in great years last year; Jones-Drew has yet to prove it. The pundits are predicting a major increase in Jones-Drews numbers, and he has never shouldered the load before. And while other smaller back have had great success (see Tiki Barber and Charlie Garner), he has to prove something before being placed ahead of Forte. Yet, the potential is there for Jones-Drew to have a break out year.
5. Frank Gore
Gore has a solid campaign in 2007, with a drop off last year. But with Mike Singletary taking over a coach and Gore hopefully getting past his nagging injuries, he should return to his previously solid numbers. 1300+ yards and 10+ TDs is not out of the question. He is only this far down the list because he is not a consistant threat outside the backfield.
Ok, ok, the question everyone is asking... where is DeAngelo Williams. I dont buy last year. He was a stud, granted, but Williams has been injury prone (check this year's status at Panther camp) and he will continue to share the load with James Stewart.
Now, on to today's babe. Check out Kimberley Rogers
2. Matt Forte
Some people are saying the arrival of Jay Cutler will impact Forte's productivity, but I think it will only enhance his production. With a legitimate threat at QB, defenses cannot stack the line and dare the Bears to beat them through the air. And Forte is a quality receiver. I would predict similar numbers as last year for Forte with a bit of an increase.
3. Michael Turner
Turner had a great year last year, yet the general notion is he will have a drop off this year. While to expect the exceptional year he had last year again, stats approaching 2008 are not out of the question. Turner is a solid pick at #3.
4. Maurice Jones-Drew
The only reason I have Jones-Drew ranked behind Forte and Turner is previous results. Forte and Turner turned in great years last year; Jones-Drew has yet to prove it. The pundits are predicting a major increase in Jones-Drews numbers, and he has never shouldered the load before. And while other smaller back have had great success (see Tiki Barber and Charlie Garner), he has to prove something before being placed ahead of Forte. Yet, the potential is there for Jones-Drew to have a break out year.
5. Frank Gore
Gore has a solid campaign in 2007, with a drop off last year. But with Mike Singletary taking over a coach and Gore hopefully getting past his nagging injuries, he should return to his previously solid numbers. 1300+ yards and 10+ TDs is not out of the question. He is only this far down the list because he is not a consistant threat outside the backfield.
Ok, ok, the question everyone is asking... where is DeAngelo Williams. I dont buy last year. He was a stud, granted, but Williams has been injury prone (check this year's status at Panther camp) and he will continue to share the load with James Stewart.
Now, on to today's babe. Check out Kimberley Rogers
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