November 21, 2009

Stand up or sit down

Jamey Eisenburg from sportsline.com does some really good analysis. As with the Talented Mr. Roto, I like to review the Start 'em Sit 'em column Eisenburg puts out. If you want to read it, find it here

Quarterbacks
Start 'em:
Brett Favre - I would start him against Seattle, should do well
Matt Schaub - The Tennessee defense has been horrible against good passers
Ben Rothlisberger - Now stick with me on this one. I think the Steelers will shut down the whoeful KC offense, get a lead early, and settle into a smash-mouth running game, limiting Big Ben's need to throw the ball all over. He will do ok, but not excellent.
Matt Hasselbeck - I am not on the wagon with this one. Now, Seattle might be down early and get into a passing situation by middle of the third quarter. Hasselbeck might do ok, but not a must start.
Donovan McNabb - He has a great week in San Diego, mainly because he had to, but he should do ok against the weak Bears D
Sit 'em:
David Garrard - not much argument here
Alex Smith - The Packer D looked strong in shutting down Romo and the Cowboys last week, expect more of the same
Matt Cassel - Cassel might not do great against the Steeler, but might pick up some ok numbers in desparation time
Carson Palmer - Everyone is playing up the Oakland defense on the net, but I see good things for Cinncinati, especially with Benson on the sidelines, they will rely more on the passing game
Matt Ryan - If the o-line can protect him, he will do well, if not, well, hard to throw the ball from your ass

Runningbacks
Start 'em:
LaDainian Tomlinson - The Denver D has not been playing great lately, yet, I don't trust Tomlinson in this one
Ricky Williams - We all know how this one turned out, but I did start him on my team
Beanie Wells - Wells is starting to play more and more, getting more touches, and if they feed him the ball, Beanie will score and scoer well... in fact, I am starting him on my team as well
LeSean McCoy - Against Chicago, I can agree with this start
Bernard Scott - I would not put Scott in a must start category just yet
Sit 'em:
Laurence Maroney - The Hoodie will not commit to the run, and the Jets do fairly well against the run, even without Kris Jenkins
Jonathon Stewart - He had an ok night, but DeAngelo is clearly the star in Carolina
Jamaal Charles - Completely agree with sitting Charles
LaDell Betts - Betts can catch the ball out of the back field, so he might just do ok against the 'Boys
Justin Forsett - Tough match up for his first start, Minnesota will shut him down

Wide Receivers
Start 'em:
Steve Breaston - He is a decent flex option or weaker #2, but not a must start
Santonio Holmes - I would start Hines Ward in this game, Holmes has been very inconsistent, and has some important drops
Jerricho Cotchery - If they keep the reigns on Sanchez, so too will Cotchery be slow
Pierre Garcon - It is hard to name a #3 option (see Breaston), even in a great offense, as a must start... both Wayne and Clark are primary in Indy
Sit 'em
Michael Crabtree - The Packer D played well last week, getting back to the high pressure mode they had been in earlier in the year
Santana Moss - Nice call here, I have seen Moss on some folks start list, but he belongs here, even if he has torched the Cowboys in the past... these are NOT the same old Redskins
Devin Hester - I might sit him too, but he is the primary Wideout for all of Culter's down field jam jobs
Mike Sims-Walker - I don't agree, the Buffalo D is not that strong

Tight Ends
Start 'em:
Greg Olsen - This only works if Culter checks down more than he has been
Kevin Boss - not sure I would ever put Boss on a must start list
John Carlson - The Vikings bring heat and Hasselbeck's first check down will be Carlson, this one could happen
Sit 'em:
Todd Heap - Heap has been mainly invisible anyhow, so not a tough call here
Benjamin Watson - again hard not to sit an invisible player (other than one game)
Zach Miller - A good tight end is always a new QBs best friend... Miller might do ok

Today's Hottie: Sarah Stage
Since she suggested it and it sounded good, Today is Sarah Saturday and will be each of the next few weeks!



November 20, 2009

Hate / Love

Matthew Berry from ESPN writes a weekly column he calls his Love Hate list. He runs through players he loves for the weekend's matchup and those he hates. And well Berry is an "expert" and gets paid big jack to express his opinions, I often disagree. So, here is my spin in the Talented Mr Roto's thoughts, which can be found here

Berry "Loves"

Ricky Williams - Now this one is late and yes, I liked him too... after all, I started him on my fantasy team and reaped the rewards to the tune of 36+ fantasy points

Lex Hilliard - Berry liked him in deeper leagues, but I never heard him... too obscure
Jonathon Stewart - DeAngelo is still the main main and most talented in Carolina and it showed in Miami

Jason Campbell - Campbell will never be on my love-list, until further notice

Santana Moss - and Moss won't even with his history of big games against Dallas, not as long as Campbell is his QB

Mohammad Massaquoi - I don't see anyone on the Browns really worth starting these days. Their offense looked horrible with Derek Anderson at QB and pathetic is not too strong a word with Quinn under center

Steelers D - Yeah, they should bury KC, sorry Todd Haley

Eli Manning and Steve Smith - Smith has slid into a consistant if not spectacular fantasy WR, worth a solid #2 or weaker #1 slot, but Eli has been sputtering... and will continue so-so numbers against Atlanta

Jason Snelling - too early to proclaim the back up as savior

Jeremy Shockey - I hate those short "trends" that fantasy guru's say predict the future, like the Bucs giving up a TD in 3 of 4 games to a TE... does that mean Shockey will score too? Not, but I still like him against Tampa

Pierre Garcon - He is a decent flex and marginal #2 play if you have him. He is available on many wires, and if you have room, pick him up

Joe Flacco - I can agree with this one just because the Raven defense doesn't scare Manning and the Colts, so Flacco is gonna have to go toe-to-toe with Peyton

TJ House, Nate Burleson and John Carlson - I am not sure why Berry likes the three amigos from Seattle against the stout Minnesota defense... I for one, don't, except maybe Carlson

Brett Favre - Minnesota will start resting AP for the stretch run, using more of Chester Taylor and Favre will continue to ball... throw Sidney Rice in here too.

Bernard Scott - mmmmm, he got nicked up last week after taking over for Benson, and I don't know if he will answer the call to greatest, plus LJ will steal some carries I think

Bengals D - Lock this one, the Raider's offense is anemic

LT - Love his Kari Wuhrer comments, but Denver has a TON to lose in this game, and if they have any backbone, will stand up and fight, shutting down LT

Tony Scheffler - He is worth starting

Greg Olsen - Thanks for sharing the points against info Mr Roto, but unless Culter really starts checking down more, Olsen will continue to be a fanatsy after thought most weeks

LeSean McCoy - this one is a no-brainer

Kevin Walter - Someone has to step in for the production of IR Owen Daniels, and I thought Walter would do that sooner, but perhaps this is the week

Berrys "Hates"

Roy Williams - Even though he sucks and is doing his best to replace TO as a prima-donna and drop-meister, Williams is getting more and more targets and chances to produce, Miles Austin is NOT a #1 NFL wideout and facing the top corners and defenses taking him away is working, so Williams will continue to get opportunities

Frank Gore - Yeah, I agree, Green Bay has not given up a big game to a RB this year really

Ryan Grant - I see a middling game for Grant against the 49'ers

Jamaal Charles - I agree with this one, the Steelers are mad and will bury the Chiefs early, with no time for a running game

Matt Ryan - The Giants have a good pass rush and Ryan has been mediocre of late, but I hold out hope

Carson Palmer and Ocho Cinco - With Benson sidelined, the running game will not be the focus, so the passing game will be... I would pick up Coles if you have room, lots of folks dropped him and he has been quietly out producing "85" recently

Mike Sims-Walker and Torry Holt - The Bills are in disarray, one MSW will do fine, not sure about Holt (who else but me misses the old Holt?)

Joseph Addai - Addai has been having an unspectacular if not really solid year, probably near the #10 RB spot in your league... look for yourself, I could see him doing ok here

Austin Collie - Collie has disappeared since a nice week... weeks ago

Laurence Maroney - The Jets are not nearly as tough as they were earlier in the year. Maroney would be an ok #2 option

Knowshon Moreno - The San Diego defense is not as tough as it once was and Moreno will be ok, not great, but ok

Jay Cutler - Yeah, Philly is tough on D and Culter is too careless with the ball... mad skills, but careless

Devin Hester - He will be on my bench this week

Ryan Moats - I stashed him on my fantasy bench, but not sure what I have in him yet... I will be watching this week

Today's Hottie: Danielle









November 19, 2009

The wire

The injuries are mounting in the league, especially in the runningback world. Brian Westbrook. Ronnie Brown. Cedric Benson. Julius Jones. Shall we continue? Clinton Portis. Michael Turner. All this does is keep the waiver wire hot. I like the logic and thoughts presented by Roger Rotter on foxsport.com. Read his wire article here Here are his top 10 wire pick ups right now and some of my own thoughts on them

10. Larry Johnson, RB, CincinnatiJohson just signed with Cincinnati. With Benson out and no clear idea when he will return, Johnson might be a nice short term pick up. And the rookie, Bernard Scott, got nicked up in his first significant work last Sunday. I am not saying go right out and claim Johnson, but it bears watching

9. Nate Washington, WR, TennesseeI would put my money on Kenny Britt stepping up more here, although Washington will get his chances. They play weak defenses, but Washington does nothing consistently, except consistently unimpress.

8. Jason Avant, WR, PhiladelphiaIf you are desparate, this might work, but only in desparation. Avant has been in the league a few years and has not stood out. I don't see that happened suddenly out of the blue, especially with better targets all over in Maclin, Jackson and Celek, not to mention whichever RB is playing. Avant benefitted from a wild air attack comeback Philly needed against San Diego.

7. Chris Chambers, WR, Kansas CityHe is probably gone already, but if he is out there and you need WR help, give this a shot. He stepped right in and became the #2 wideout. Coach Haley loves to toss the ball so Chambers should do well.

6. Jason Snelling, RB, AtlantaSnelling is not Michael Turner and will share carries with whoever else is on the roster, depending on Jerious Norwood's status. If Norwood plays, Snelling's value goes down as well.

5. Bernard Scott, RB, CincinnatiScott's value took an immediate hit when Larry Johnson was signed. If the Bengals can do a reclamation project on Johnson like they did Benson, watch out for LJ. But for now Scott has the job, but don't expect huge success.

4. Jamaal Charles, RB, Kansas CityCharles is a good pickup, and keep an eye on Kolby Smith. I don't think Charles would be available, since Johnson is gone over a week, but check.

3. Ladell Betts, RB, WashingtonLast I heard, Portis is out, so pick up Betts if you need help and he is available. I don't think he would be, but he is worth a roster spot with Portis still down.

2. Justin Forsett, RB, SeattleForsett is gone already I would expect, but if not, grab him. He is definately worth a spot and yes, I think he should keep the job in Seattle.

1. LeSean McCoy, RB, PhiladelphiaAgain, doubt he is on the wire, but snap him up if he is. I don't know if Westbrook will be back this year, but McCoy should do well in his place.

Today's Hottie: Nicole P









November 18, 2009

Counter Point

Jay Clemons write a pretty entertaining column for SI.com. And like most fantasy guru's or experts or whatever you want to call them, you never agree with all of what they say. Jay writes before the weekend games on guys who are a lock for good performances. Here is this week's column and my comments:

QB Locks For 275 Yards and/or 3 TDs
1. Kurt Warner @ St. Louis - St. Louis is playing hard for new coach Steve Spagnola, and will this week too, but Warner and the Cards should thrive, lock it in
2. Philip Rivers @ Denver - The Denver D has not been stellar (take it from an owner), but they have to stand tall this weekend, Rivers will struggle to meet these numbers
3. Tom Brady vs. N.Y. Jets - The Jets are fighting for their playoff lives and a share of the division, and should repeat be able to slow the Patriots down, if not win the game
4. Donovan McNabb @ Chicago - The Bearz D has not been solid and McNabb should do well... but just when you think the Eagles are a lock...well, you know.
5. Drew Brees @ Tampa Bay - Tampa is playing much better of late, but Brees should excel in this matchup
6. Eli Manning vs. Atlanta - This one depends on the health of his foot, the week off should help and Manning should hit these numbers
7. Brett Favre vs. Seattle - This one depends on AP, but I would look for the yardage or TDs, but not both
8. Aaron Rodgers vs. San Francisco - This is going to be a tough game and I don't see Rodgers doing it
9. Matthew Stafford vs. Cleveland - Too early to lock the rookie into these type of numbers, not with the Browns D suddenly playing inspired ball

RB Locks -- 120 Total Yards and/or 2 TDs
1. DeAngelo Williams vs. Miami - Williams is on a roll and should continue
2. Ray Rice vs. Indianapolis - While Indy will win this game, Rice will work the short passing game and easily work these numbers, maybe both
3. Marion Barber vs. Washington - Too much time share in Big D, ain't gonna happen
4. Frank Gore @ Green Bay - The Green Bay D has been solid all year and should again be
5. Maurice Jones-Drew vs. Buffalo - Bank this one
6. Adrian Peterson vs. Seattle - And this one
7. Pierre Thomas @ Tampa Bay - I am not sure of this one, depends on how much the ball gets spread around, and remember, Reggie Bush stole the thunder last week
8. Beanie Wells @ St. Louis - Ok, the rookie is starting to impress
9. Chris Johnson @ Houston - Locked, must start Johnson
10. Matt Forte vs. Philadelphia - Flash in the pan, I don't see Forte being anything more than a secondary fantasy back the rest of the way
11. Rashard Mendenhall @ Kansas City - If Air-Rothlisberger commits to the run, Mendenhall will perform

WR Locks -- 110 Total Yards and/or 1 TD
1. Andre Johnson vs. Tennessee - Lock this one in
2. Randy Moss vs. N.Y. Jets - Revis shut up down in their last match up and should again, at lease limit him
3. Jeremy Maclin @ Chicago - I like Maclin in this match up
4. Wes Welker vs. N.Y. Jets - Welker should do his normal 9 for 87 with maybe a TD
5. Vincent Jackson @ Denver - Jackson is a must start and a lock
6. Larry Fitzgerald @ St. Louis - Lock this one in
7. Calvin Johnson vs. Cleveland - I am gonna say no to this, Cleveland showed defensive life on Monday
8. Marques Colston @ Tampa Bay - Ok, I can go with this one after the poor performance last week
9. Hines Ward @ Kansas City - Wards lives for this time of year, bank it
10. Sidney Rice vs. Seattle - Rice has been an impressive performer and is only getter stronger
11. Santana Moss @ Dallas - Not gonna happen, Moss has been a no-show most of the year, not reason to believe otherwise now
12. Steve Breaston @ St. Louis - Not, unless Boldin is out

Today's Hottie: Carrie LaChance








November 17, 2009

To be fleeced or not to be fleeced

A couple weeks ago, I posted about a bunch of trade offers I posed to some folks. Here was one of those. I offer one of either Brandon Jacobs and Matt Forte plus one of either Greg Jennings or Devin Hester for Marques Colston. I was flatly turned down. Well, the owner came back to me with a different offer.

Today, I was offered a one for two trade. Marques Colston for Sidney Rice and Ricky Williams. At first glance, this seems like a decent offer. But I have dug into the numbers and here is what I am finding. In a Performance PPR league, with 12 teams, Sidney Rice now has MORE points than Colston. The other piece of the trade is the throw in of Ricky Williams, who is quietly having a solid fantasy season. Now, I have Ronnie Brown as well, but in reality, they are only about 1 fantasy point a game apart in scoring. Plus, Ronnie Brown is out this week for sure with a foot injury and who knows for the following. A fair trade would be Williams for Colston straight up for Williams if you look at the raw points of it. I think, I will stay away from this fleecing! I added the points for all the players below.

Sidney Rice - 131 pts
Ricky Williams - 148 pts
Marques Colston - 130 pts
Ronnie Brown - 161 pts

I will have to see what alternative trades I can dream up. More tomorrow.

Today's Hottie: Jaycelle







November 16, 2009

R & R - Ramblings and Rantings

Injury Impacts - There were some significant injuries from the weekend.

Brian Westbrook suffered another concussion against the Chargers on Sunday. This is his second in a very short time. For his sake, I hope the Eagles keep him on the bench for a while. If you can grab him, picking up LeSean McCoy is a good move. He is not available on the wire in most leagues, but you might be able to trade for him cheap

Michael Turner suffered a sprain and did not return Sunday. Bad blow for his owners. Keep an eyes on the injury and how bad it is. Snapping up Jerious Norwood is a good move. But another good move is to offer Turner owners a couple 2nd tier guys for the injured Turner. If you can afford the move, Turner could be back just in time of the playoff run.

Kyle Orton injured his ankle again and will be out a week for sure. Impact is not for starting fantasy QBs, but Orton was a solid match up guy, proven by his start against a weak Redskins defense. Without the injury, he was in line for a big day. Chris Sims has no value as a back up.

Clinton Portis is still out and LaDell Betts did well in his place. Keep an eye on how long Portis is out.

I didn't see what happened to Julius Jones in Seattle, but Justin Forsett had a great game in his place. He is definately worth a wire pick up.

Cedric Benson looked to have injured his leg or hip against the Steelers on Sunday. He tried make a go of it, but was noticably slower and hobbled. I don't know the severity. His backup also got nicked up, Bernard Scott. Brian Leonard is worth a short term look if Benson and Scott are both out.

What's Up? Other guys to look at:

Roy Williams - Even with his drops and fumble, you cannot miss the fact that Romo is starting to look for Williams. Without the screw ups, his already solid day (105 and a score) could have been much better.

Pierre Garcon - Garcon is becoming the secondary WR the Colts have been missing with Gonzales out. Dallas Clark has really picked up that roll, but teams are trying to take him away with double coverages. It was inevitable that Garcon or Collie step up.

Chris Chambers - Chambers posted another solid game, if not as spectacular as the last week. If Tod Haley gets his wish, he will transform Kansas City into Arizona East, with not quite the talent. Chambers could move into the Boldin role opposite Dwayne Bowe.

Shrewd move with potential. If you can snag AP's back up, Chester Taylor for little or no cost, if an injury to Petersen happens, Taylor could be a gold mine.

Today's Hottie: Melinda Williams








November 15, 2009

Sunday Observations

Trying a new format for these. Let me know what you think!

Chicago v SF
Matt Forte had a strong game, even though he could never get going on the ground, his 100+ yards in the air, helped him put up strong numbers. On the other side, Frank Gore also posted strong points. Other than Culter's 300+ yards and his FIVE INTs, and the fact that Davis spouted off and got shut down for it, not much else to report on this game.

Atlanta v Carolina
I was surprized by this outcome. First, HUGE injury to Michael Turner. For his owner's sakes, I hope it is not severe, but ankles are tough for a runningback to come back from quickly. Nothing else outstanding in this game, solid from Roddy White and a slight surprise from Muhammad. 2 TDs for Steve Smith scored well for his owners. Matt Ryan owners are going to start worrying (including me in one league), if his numbers don't improve soon.

Miami v Tampa
The Bucs have been surprisely game the past two weeks and almost pulled out another win. Ricky Williams (100+ rushing) and Ronnie Brown (82 rushing + TD) continue to put up solid numbers together. It also looks like their is some chemistry between the rookie, Josh Freeman, and the Soldier - Kellen Winslow (100+).

Minnesota v Detroit
Farve just keeping rolling. 300+ again with a TD and NO ints. Ap was strong with 133 and 2 scores. The Lions continue to struggle and I doubt anyone on the team will be worth much beyond Calvin Johnson, if he is healthy.

Jacksonville v New York Jets
MJD is one of the three best RBs in fantasyland... and to think, I passed him up at #3 for Matt Forte. UGH! David Garrard is always good for his pedastrian 200 yards and a score or to. Nice, but nothing ever spectacular really. The Jets didn't do anything to write home to mom about. Sanchez is not all that after all!

Cincinnati v Pittsburgh
Did anyone have these kickers? 18 to 12? 4 FGs apiece. The big note again is the injury to Cedric Benson. He left with a hip or leg injury and was inaffective afterwards. Neither Palmer or Rothlisberger or anyone else for that matter did much. This was a defensive struggle through and through.

New Orleans v St. Louis
Wow, who would have thought this would be a tough game. Stephen Jackson is a stud, putting up 175 combined in a TD. Marc Bulger played a solid game and might be moving into fair fantasy back up status (298 and 2TDs and a single INT). Reggie Bush has a nice day with 83 yards and a TD, but on only 6 carries. Donnie Avery did post 60+ and 2 TDs, which is nice, although no one started him anywhere!

Tennessee v Buffalo
Buffalo made a game of it at first. But can I say... CHRIS FREAKIN' JOHNSON! 232 combined and 2 TDs. Outstanding! AGAIN! Lee Evans had 2 TDs and was there a TO sighting? Can it be?

Denver v Washington
The Denver D is falling apart is seems. Especially if the 'Skins can torch 'em. again, another injury of note, Kyle Orton goes down to an ankle. Some might have been starting him but if you have him as a back up, start looking. LaDell Betts was solid in replacing Portis with 100+ and a TD, despite a sore ankle. And Brandon Marshall was huge with 130+ and 2TDs in the first half before Orton went down. Where has Santana Moss gone?

Kansas City v Oakland
Did any actually watch this game? JaMarcus Russell really stinks, both football and fantasy wise. 9/24, 64 yards? what is that? Michael Bush tried to make up for it with 120 on the ground. Jamal Charles just about matched him and threw in a TD. Not much else to talk about.

Seattle v Arizona
Kurt Warner was strong again with his 300+ and 2 TDs. The triplets all put up good numbers (Boldin/Fitzgerald/Breaston). TJ Housh matched them with 165. But the story for me was the emergence of Forsett and Wells. 123 w/ 1 TD and 85 w/ 2 TDs respectively. Pick up Forsett on the waiver wire and snap up Wells if you can, due to the cupcake fantasy playoff schedule for the Cards.

Dallas v Green Bay
Again, a surprising game. One that Green Bay won. Two in the low score. Ryan Grant was solid if not spectacular, but Roy Williams stepped it up, even if his TD was in garbage time late. Greg Jennings continues to underwhelm and neither Rodgers or Romo posted their normally stellar numbers.

Philly v Dan Diego
A furious come back by the Eagles fell just short. McNabb posted 450 and 2 TDS, outstanding, with a surprising Jason Avant as the primary beneficiary (150+). Lots of secondary solid games for the other WRs. Tomlinson is not quite done, posting almost 100 yards and 2 TDs on the ground. Vincent Jackson was hugely disappointing with a single catch for 10 yards

Today's Hottie: Ashley Day